Genoa, April 3rd 2003


Dear Friend,

something must be wrong over the Atlantic. American media depict most of us Europeans either as wimp or ungrateful, or worst of all, as Saddam's friends. At the same time, on US newspapers you can read opinions that raise sensible issues in a frank way that seems to be forbidden here, apart from some small anti-American circles. On IHT, March 31st, appeared a column that straightforwardly compared Iraqi war crimes with the US behavior in Guantanamo. Doing so on Italian TV would be regarded as a treachery. Funny enough, isn't it?

I would like to focus on a single point of this complicated matter. Is Europe scared of the American power? Do many Europeans oppose this war because they feel that the victory in Iraq would consolidate the US role as a lone superpower?

I can speak on my own behalf only, of course. And my opinion is: I'm not scared of American power. I'm scared (awfully scared) by signs of American weakness.

The almighty America of the 20th century, of unprecedented technological and economical superiority, has been the best world leader to be found in history. I will never forget (and most Europeans with me) that American army came in Europe twice in that century, and stayed once, always to help freedom to prevail. This is part of the personal history of most of us, and I'm no exception. My grandfather fought in WW1; as a young officer my father spent many days, during WW2, staring at the sky, waiting for help from Allied aircrafts. His men and he badly needed it. The young and powerful America spread freedom at the cost of so many of the bravest sons. Americans had no fear: they knew that they could prevail in war and peace, they were prepared to fight wars but they did not need them. There was a link between America's unlimited power and the positive role played in the world.

My sensation is that a major change occurred at this start of the 21st century: America is scared now. September 11, of course, is a incredibly severe blessing. A scared country, as scared people, easily changes its behavior, but everybody is quite prepared to fully understand that. Unfortunately the economics changed, too.

US technology in no more unparalleled in the world. Apart from weapons, you can find in many countries products that can be easily compared to the American ones. Even US companies fly European-made jetliners. Many Americans have European cellphones. Not to speak about Far East products, that are everywhere. Of course American companies still dominate the scene, but no more in the overwhelming way of the past: according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the revenue of foreign assets in the US consistently outweight US revenues from assets in other countries. Briefly put: world's economics still centers on the US, but it does not need to anymore. There are alternatives.

The American Way of Life vastly relies now on imported goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis places the US commercial deficit of the US somewhere around 510.000.000.000 $. A huge amount of money, even for the US. What keeps the American ship afloat? People around the world who invest in US assets, looking at America as the most safe harbor. Cut this powerful stream of money, and the President will maybe have to go on TV and explain to his voters that they won't be able to buy that new SUV next month.

My own fear is now clear, I think. I'm not afraid of the American Marines. I'm even prepared to sing From the Halls of Montezuma to the Shores of Tripoli, if necessary. With no shame: my father anxiously waited for them, I can do the same. On the contrary, I'm afraid of a Country that now needs exercise of military power in order to keep its leadership. 20th century America didn't.

Think to the last decade. We had, in our Europe / Middle East area, two major wars: the 1st Gulf War and Kosovo war. In both cases, all European countries were part of the alliances led by US. A minor local detail is revealing: Italian Air Force took part to the raids on Serbia while Italy had a government led by a former Communist. That government ordered, briefly put, to bomb their former comrades. Italy had important economic interests is the area: an Italian company even owned Telekom Serbia, the local Ma Bell.

Why not today? Saddam is a disgusting dictator, as everybody knows. Where's the problem?

My own answer is: US failed to be a credible leader this time. The Bush administration failed to show traditional allies a consistent reason for this war. One day they were talking about fight to terrorism, next day about imposing democracy in the area, later it was fight to fundamentalism (who, Saddam? Iran's archenemy? The man who has a Catholic no. 2 ?) or mass-destruction weapons (what about North Korea, and Pakistan nukes?) and then we lost the count. This is not the way you can gain support. As Paul Glastris (Slate, March 17th) put it we do know that George H.W. Bush worked sincerely and energetically to put together an international war coalition and succeeded; Bill Clinton worked sincerely and energetically to put together an international war coalition and succeeded; and George W. Bush worked grudgingly and sporadically to do the same and failed … America should have been able to invade Iraq with an alliance, or at least a broad coalition. Instead, all we have is a gang.

To be honest, it really seemed to me that US was even not looking for support. Scaring, but not new. Look at Kyoto and Rome treaties. US signed both, and later refused to ratify and enforce them, plainly saying that the treaties' obligations did not fit America's interest. Is this just Bush administration's policy? Or is this a structural change? Do the US simply need to act this way in order to enforce a leadership they are not able to enforce anymore without some help from the Stealth?

America used to lead the world, and a lot of people, like me, were happy to follow. Now Americans seem to be willing just to go their own way, but I do not nurture any anti-American sentiment: I just feel a little bit of an orphan.

Goes without saying, the first concern is for real orphans now. As General Sherman said, War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it. Everybody's wish is that this war will end soon with as little casualties as possible, and with Saddam ousted forever.

Yours
   


                                                               ugo